Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Instrumenting Your Enterprise for Maximum Predictive Power

I read an interesting post in the Forrester's blog, entitled Instrumenting Your Enterprise for Maximum Predictive Power, written by James Kobielus, where he told about why the companies need to be able to predict future scenarios.

He started explaining: "predictive analytics can play a pivotal role in the day-to-day operation of your business. It can help you focus strategy and continually tweak plans based on actual performance and likely future scenarios." He said: "The grand promise of predictive analytics—still largely unrealized in most companies—is that it will become ubiquitous, guiding all decisions, transactions, and applications. For the technology to rise to that challenge, organizations must move toward a comprehensive advanced analytics strategy that integrates data mining, content analytics, and in-database analytics. Already, we’ve sketched out a vision of “Service-Oriented Analytics,” under which you break down silos among data mining and content analytics initiatives and leverage these pooled resources across all business processes."

He defined: "For starters, assess whether your analytics tools support the following capabilities for developing, validating, and deploying predictive models:

- Model multiple business scenarios: You should be able to build complex models of multiple, linked business scenarios across different business, process, and subject-area domains, using such key features as strategy maps, ensemble modeling , and champion-challenger modeling.
- Incorporate multiple information types into models: You should be able to develop models against multiple information types, including unstructured content and real-time event streams, while leveraging state-of-the-art algorithm in sentiment analysis and social network analysis.
- Leverage multiple statistical algorithms and approaches in models: You should be able to develop models using the widest, most sophisticated range of statistical and mathematical algorithms and approaches, including regression, constraint-based optimization, neural networks, genetic algorithms, and support vector machines.
- Apply multiple metrics of model quality and fitness: You should be able to score and validate model quality using multiple metrics and approaches, including quality scores, lift charts, goodness-of-fit charts, comparative model evaluation, and auto best-model selection.
- Employ multiple variable discovery and assessment approaches: You should be able to build and validate models using various approaches for variable discovery, profiling, and selection, including decision trees, feature selection, clustering, association rules, affinity analysis, and outlier analysis."

Kobielus adviced: "to instrument your organization for maximum predictive power, you should also tool your advanced analytics to support the following capabilities:

- DW-integrated data preparation: To speed up and standardize the most time-consuming predictive modeling project tasks, you should be able to leverage your existing data warehouse, extract transform load, data quality, and metadata tools to support a full range of data preparation features.
- Deep application and middleware integration: To deliver models deeply into whatever heterogeneous SOA-enabled platform you happen to use, your predictive analytics tool should deploy on and/or integrate with a wide range of enterprise applications, middleware, operating platforms, and hardware substrate.
- Consistent cross-domain model governance: To avoid fostering an unmanageable glut of myriad models, your predictive analytics solution should support a wide range of tools, features, and interfaces to support life-cycle governance of models created in diverse tools.
- Flexible model deployment: To execute modeling functions--such as data preparation, regression, and scoring—on the widest range of data warehouses and other platforms, your tools should support in-database or embedded analytics. And to scale to the max, your predictive analytics tools should deploy models to massively parallel data warehouses, software-as-a-service environments, and cloud computing fabrics. Your advanced analytics tools should also support development of application logic in open frameworks—such as MapReduce and Hadoop—to enable convergence of data mining and content analytics in the cloud.
-Rich interactive visualization: To deliver their precious payload—actionable intelligence—your advanced analytics tools should support interactive visualization of models, data, and results."

James concluded the article with the following statement: "We see a robust, flexible, SOA-enabled data mining tools as the centerpiece of advanced analytics for fully predictive enterprises. The competitive stakes are too great for businesses to take the traditional silo-mired approach when implementing this mission-critical technology."

James Kobielus wrote a good article, the predictive analytics is increasingly becoming important for help the organizations to make better decisions.

No comments: